Why Depreciating Rupee is good for short term..

If you look at Indian currency INR (Rupee), it has been depreciating from past 45 days, the reason might be the outflow of dollars. High inflation numbers and poor industrial performance is also not helping the stock markets. We are seeing the spur in demand of precious commodities like gold and silver as lot of economist are fearing a double dip recession. Our currency has now depreciated to more than 48 per dollar from 44.5 just 45 days back which is nearly 7 to 8%. But this deprecuition of currency might be good for the country in short term.

1. It will make exports Competitive and might improve the capacity utilization of manufacturing companies. 

2. Increase the investment in Indian equity and Debt market as dollar will get god valuation.

3. Curb outflow of investments from India and the money might be invested in Indian businesses.

4. Natural Hedge against the selling by FIIs as the FIIs will loose in dollar terms.

See the Difference ..

:)

Why Jan Lokpal law can slow India down..

We might all be cheering hard for Jan Lokpal which the Anna team has presented but are we aware that it can adversely affect the growth of the country. Following are the prominent reasons which might derail the good growth in India if very strong anti-corruption bills are passed.

1. Dis-incentive for Government machinery: The government machinery, banks, public institutions are so used to bribes that it has become a part of their compensation. Infact the salaries offered by government is so less that it barely makes up for their needs and reflect their experience and qualifications. These people are there on those roles just because  they are getting incentives from extra money they make. This also improves the speed in the system as they try to push the proposals. 99% of times wrong proposals are not passed by bribing, its just that the deserving proposal gets those extra legs and gets passed on priority. Time is money and the whole business suffers if the speed of transactions reduces.

2.  Fear of doing Wrong: Anyone and every one can do things wrong at times. Consider a bank manager working in a PSU, who passed 100 loans every day, he can get a few loans passed wrongly as people submit fake documents difficult to differentiate. Now if you will hang that person for doing wrong in 1% of those cases, he will never work efficiently. The fear of complaint, disrespect will make people take a lot of time in doing routine things and the speed of the whole value chain will be greatly reduced. For example, if I give a slap to Sehwag for getting out below 10 and no incentive for hitting a century, will he still like to play cricket. And everyone seems to know Cricket well and criticize Sehwag in this country

3. Change the draconian Laws first: The laws are required to be reformed before a strict anti-corruption law is in-acted. If you check out the rules of financing, rules of land acquisition etc. If the entrepreneur start following them as per the books, the business in India will come to a stand still. Rules might favor the established players as they have powerful lobbies and they also fund the political parties. The young entrepreneur will find it impossible to do business in India if he follows the draconian rules and not bribe his way through.

4. Crores of cases in Jan-Lokpal: If every person in India can simply write an application and get his complaint registered in Jan-lokpal how will you solve such crores of cases wnd who will monitor it ? How will you prevent people from filing wrong cases just to ridicule or blackmail the honest public servants ? The whole country is already struggling with so many pending cases in our courts. If things are pending in arbitration, it will adversely affect the growth of the country and velocity of money.


5. FDI in India: Most of the foreign direct Investment in India is nothing but the black money of Indians itself which is routed through tax heavens and is invested in fresh projects which create economic activity and employment opportunities.The tax laws in India are deterrent to a lot of growth. If people pay less tax and invest more in growth it provides compounded returns.

6. Law can not change people: Law can only create deterrent for people, it can not change people in a day.


7. Don't confuse corruption with Cop asking for money:The masses are mostly behind Jan Lokpal,specially the middle class as they feel that it will stop people in influential position abusing their power. How will you stop a cop asking for Rs 100 when actual fine is 500 and one has to wait for it in court for 5 days. You want to happily want to pay-off Rs 100 and get rid of it. If the cop is smart, you will be actually ready to pay even 500 to cop and still avoid the procedures. No law can change the way things are done in a civilized society. It takes generations to bring the change. If you change the system to no court hearing , pay 200 fine and leave. Will I have any problem in doing so ?

Everyone wants corruption free country but the question is you want anti-corruption over growth. Most honest countries might not be the most progressive or having the highest growth in the country. When India has almost half the population below poverty line, we need to ask our self, " do we need most honest country or do we need more people who are prosperous". Growth slowly tickles down and create opportunities for all. One white collar jobs lead to creation for 3 blue collar jobs. The thought is good but the timing is still a concern to me.

How to Handle Terrorism ?

Yet another bomb blast rocking the country, a lot of people died, few lost their limbs and will suffer for life because of it. Life isn't fair after all. I don't understand why do terrorist target the innocent people. Don't they have their own families ? How do they sleep in night after committing such heinous acts ? Is there any end to it?

The problem is only getting difficult with improvement of technology. Terrorists are using modern method to create panic in the society. It is very difficult to locate handful of such crack heads from millions of people. How can we handle or reduce such cowardly attacks?

1. Extra Vigilant Society: We need to be extra vigilant in crowded areas, It might look a stressful activity but  a vigilant society might reduce the number of such blasts. We need to be sure whom we are renting our hotels and flats to. We need to be careful about any unusual activity done by our co-passenger. We need to report all such activities to police at the earliest. I think its need of the hour to be extra vigilant.

2. Strict Punishment for Terrorist Activities : Make life so difficult for terrorist that they think 7 times before planning any activity. They should dread being charged for terrorism. People who support the terrorism by providing material or non material support should be be made equally liable for punishment. I dont really care about human rights activist here, We need to firstly save our human race and humanity.

3. Education: Education and knowledge improves perspective towards things, makes people more understanding and tolerant towards each other. It might not completely stop the terrorism but the more and better educated world will certainly have lessor terrorism.

4. Eradicating Poverty and inequity in society:  Somewhere or the other inequity and poverty in the society gives rise to such activities. The epicenter of such activities are mainly shabby localities where people find difficult to make a living and are lured by crime and terrorism.

5. Peaceful resolution of conflicts: Government should work with the terrorist organizations to reduce the conflicts, should peacefully resolve the problems, create jobs and employment opportunities for such people who can get healed and treated so that the poison of terrorism can be washed away from our system.

6. Reforming the antiquated systems: Some of the antiquated systems and institutions like Madarsas should be reformed and brought under clear guidelines and curriculum. These are the places where innocent peoples were systematically brain washed into believing in Jihad .

7. Better Intelligence Network and Infrastructure : Although terrorism is very difficult to curtail just by our intelligence agencies, but the way our intelligence system works, there is a huge opportunity for improvements. The whole anti-terrorism infrastructure needs to developed again. A part of money we pay as tax should be used for improving our security by investing in modern technology and infrastructure to fight terrorism.

Another Politician goes to Jail ..

Amar Singh became the new addition to the list of politician who went to judicial custody for various charges in last few months. Interestingly the whole drama of not turning up to court by showing medical reasons was strictly sorted by the court which usually does not hesitate in just giving the next hearing date. Amar Singh now have to just be happy with medical facilities of the prison. 

Mr Singh has also just added his name to the prominent list of politicians who tasted the salt of prison off-late like Mr. A.Raja, Mr. Suresh Kalmadi, Mr. Madhu Koda and Ms. Kani Modzi.   As the number of politicians going to Jail are increasing, it looks to be a positive sign for the Indian democracy. It also sends a good message to the political class that no one is untouchable when it comes to judiciary. If not in their own political term,politicians will be taken to the task once their term end for their misdeeds. So politicians should better do good things to stay away from a prison term. 

Our politicians must realize that doing corruption and escaping charges is become increasingly difficult for them as the media and use of technology is increasingly making the system more transparent.Government at times is also forced to stay away from influencing the judiciary to respect the popular sentiment of the citizens of the country. I hope it makes more politicians honest. 

Some of the question which comes to mind are how many of the politicians will finally be convicted, how much time will they stay in jail and how long will the case remain pending for judgement? I hope we witness some of the judgement in our lifetimes if not politicians.  

Its a high speed ride: Are you ready ?

The speed at which the changes happen in this globally connected world is astonishing. It took several decades for TV to reach India after it came in US markets, mobile phones took much lesser time and nowadays you see launches of all the products and services happening globally. There are new technological innovations happening in the various markets which gets quickly integrated in the world markets.

The Good..

1. Innovation improves efficiency of the system, if production of particular product was taking 2 resources before, it is now taking less than 2 resources.

2. It brings bigger market for the companies. They can produce more, sell more. It might also affect the economies of scope and scale and make products cheaper. A lot of companies are getting into backward and forward integration which is improving both the margins and also reducing the cost for consumers.

3. Better products and services for consumers.

The Bad ..

1. The companies find it difficult to sell their products, specially if they are not the most competitive or do not have the quality or pricing as per world standard.

2. In a highly competitive world, the jobs will either be mechanized, outsourced or become redundant hence one has to keep improving their capabilities as per the new requirements of the market.

The Ugly ..

1. Due to higher speeds the business cycle times have reduced and the boom and bust are happening a lot faster than they usually happen. This is making a lot of people vulnerable, specially who are not financially secure.

2. Doing business becomes more difficult as the markets are moving towards perfect competition and margins are eroding very fast. Technologies gets copied very fast and companies find hard to protect the intellectual capital.


With the world changing at the fast pace, this speed is only going to increase in future as their are no breaks in this system.

What should you be doing if You are Anna's supporter ..

Supporting Anna ji might be the new " Cool " amongst the young population, but it should be done with some sanctity so that it reflects well on the us as the aware citizen of our country.

1. Don't Abuse anyone: The basic Gandhian policy is based out of respect for all. Even the adversaries must be given full respect.

2. Do not break the rules of the land:  I have heard people are openly violating traffic rules etc as they are Anna supporter and can walk away doing it. It wont please Mr. Hazare for sure.

3. Lead the Initiative: Keeping just Face Book or Gtalk messages will not make the country corruption free.  Be the change you want to see in your country.

4. Make informed choices: If you feel that some of the clauses in the Jan Lokpal are difficult to implement and can be problematic, you should clearly say that. Application of individual judgement is important as all human can make mistakes.

5. Respect the National Symbols and Flag: National flags and symbol should be treated with respect and no one is above it. One should keep follow it in all the rallies and places whee national Flags are used.

Try to hold fast for a day and feel what its like to be hungry, it might make all us empathize with Anna and also with the countless children who sleep empty stomach every day.

Understanding Marketing Plan: Anna Hazare Campaign

Understanding Marketing Plan: Anna Hazare Campaign

This is just an attempt to explore the Brand Anna and the magic of his Campaign which is making waves in the country. What could have made it work? Without any prejudices just tried to think about it and found out.

Campaign : An corruption free country.

Timing of the Campaign:  Country caught in series of scandals like Common Wealth Game, 2G etc. The people of the country want to change the country, hence an opportunity of easily finding takers of the idea.

Market Research for designing the campaign:

•        More than 50% of the Indians are below 26 years of age.
•       Less than 1% of the people are super rich. Big emerging middle class, which wants to be socially conscious, uses internet and mobile phones and largely stays in urban India.
•      The young India wants to do something but don’t know what to do when it comes to showing their contribution towards the nation building.
•     Talking against corruption is considered cool in present scenario. The louder you speak; you are looked as more patriotic and socially aware citizen.
•    Earlier effect of movies such as RDB and how it has affected the educated masses. Use the frustration of people as a tool of creating a mass uproar against the establishment.

Segmentation

•      Simple demographics based segmentation of marketing based on the size of population in various age groups, education back ground and ease of passing information to them.

Targeting

Targeting the people who are :

•          In age bracket 18-30, which comprises majority of the population of the country
•         People who have read about Mahatma Gandhi in NCERT books, and want to contribute to something for the country.
•        Educated people, using social media, who likes to express their opinions who can be the flag bearers and the early adopters.
•        People who have time but also who does not like full time commitment.

 Positioning: Anti-Corrupt India

• The positioning is neutral in nature, not to entice any religious feeling, any regionalism, try and make it global in nature where all global citizens can participate. Some thing most of the people can easily relate to or face in their life.

Brand:

• Anna " Curroption Free"  has been used as a biggest brand in the whole campaign like Richard Branson for Virgin or Mr. Mallya for Kingfisher. The reason is the spotless past which very few people in the country can boast of, a history of leading movements and an innocent and aged persona which brings respect for the brand.  The campaign main tag line is “I am Anna Hazarre” which is clearly used to make people live the brand Anna Hazzare.

Communication Strategy: 

• Crowd Sourcing, using the youngster to become the voice of the campaign. The young India which changes status messages 2-3 times a day to become the brand advocator. The people can easily pitch in by not fully committing themselves but can do their bit.
• Largely using modern technology communication like mobile phones, internet and Social Networking. Creating news and being capturing by 24 hour media channels to directly go to the masses. 

Metro Trip via Indralok ..

I had traveled a few times in Delhi Metro and liked the easy journey which metro provides to the passengers. So with that in mind I boarded the metro at Rajiv Chowk few days back and contrary to the earlier experience it was a Jam packed coach , may be the office hours effect taking toll of my comfort.

Police Man literally pushed the last man in and somehow managed to close the metro door. So finally I was inside and the train was traveling at a good speed, you can smell all kinds of sweat in the vicinity but the air conditioning was still very comforting and the experience was much better than good old Mumbai Local.

In a Jamm packed train, a lady was trying to help her relative to get down on some station. They were both some distance apart in the train and could not see each other.

So the people were obviously unaware of it.

Old Lady: ( Top of her voice) Sussshila , tu hai na...
Young Lady:  Haan, mai hu .. ( quite Prompt )
Train Crowd : Few murmurs in a otherwise silent setup..

After 5 minutes ..

Old Lady: ( Top of her Voice) Sussshila, Inderlok utar jaiyo ..
Young Lady( Ofcourse Sushila) : Haan, Utar Jaungi ( little embarrassed)
Train Crowd: Laughing, Everyone seems to be enjoying this difficult train journey.

After another 6-9 minutes ..

Old Lady: (the only way she knows to speak) Susshila, Inderlok aa gaya, tu Utar gai ..
Looks like she assumed if she does not responds means she is already out ..
Sushila: Haan uttar rahi hu .. ( deeply embarrassed  ) , murmuring ..chalo sub ka manoranjan ho gaya ..
Train Crowd: Laughing on top of there voices

I thought to myself, Everyone now knows for sure that Sushila has finally got down on Inderlok station :)

Game Shows Mysteries

One cannot help but notice so many game shows and reality shows nowadays mushrooming on every channel. Some of them are good, some not that good but there is something common about all of them.

Emotional Atyachaar:  Why do people gets so emotional on these shows ? Do they think that it will earn them some extra points ? Do the  producers of reality show think it will improve the popularity of the show? Do the audience want to see diarrhea of emotions and tears when they are watching these shows ?

Troubled  History of Participants: All these shows specially the game shows says that they have a very transparent computer generated selection procedure then how does people mainly with troubled pasts and background end up on the show? Is the computer really picks up cleanly or do the producers want to make it interesting for the audience ?

Are Celebrities so intelligent : When these shows call celebrities to be either judge or participants in the shows, they all tend to do really well. I have not seen any of the celebrity participant to make less money on any of the quizzing show or game show. Is it that our bollywood celebrities are best creation of God and they look good, act well ( sometimes ) and even know the name of the president of the Indian Olympic association in 1969 ?

Everyone Believes in Giving : Every one who comes on these shows believe in giving. Whether its the celebrities or the mango man. Why were they waiting for so long for doing this charity ? Are they really going to give away the money or just trying to impress the audience ? Are the celebrities anyway told to donate every thing to charity what they win? Does it feels good to do charity with easily earned money?


Can't be just a coincidence, these things get repeated again and again on these shows. Can someone help me with the answers please?

Aarakhshan

Watched the movie Aarakshan yesterday, first day, last show in a packed movie theater sitting in the second row . I think since the movie was banned in few states in India added the incentive of watching it here in South Africa.

The movie started with a promising opening, showing a glimpse of education system in India, how the reservation era and supreme court decision on reservation divided the masses along the communal lines rather than bringing equity in the society. The movie clearly shows the anxiety of both the sections of society specially the youth who is caught between the politics of reservation and most importantly the teachers who can not be partial about a particular section but are always viewed with suspicion. The initial one hour of the movie was quite entertaining although there is nothing in the movie which you will find new or unheard but the acting of Mr Batchan is captivating to say the least. Some the dialogues in the movie regarding reservation were actually harsh but realistic and I was surprised that they were not scissored by the sensor board.

After the initial one hour, the movie digressed and focused on the role of coaching institutes in education system and also on the personal rivalry between a good teacher (Mr Bachhhan) and a bad teacher (Mr Bajpai)  . It just took the main topic of Aarakshan for a toss and looked to me as a major flaw in the movie. The timings of songs was really bad and they all seemed to be just inserted in the movie and made little sense with the story line. The characters were too strong either very good or very bad which also looked to be the traditional bollywood way of story telling and this aspect also could have been depicted much better by Mr Jha.  

Overall I can say people can go out of the theaters after the first one hour if they have got other important work to do, to make best use of their time or can just remain seated if there is nothing more interesting to do. 

What do our Armed Forces do in Peace Time ?

India boasts of a huge military might, they are all very well trained, disciplined and also inclined towards the development of the country. India has fought 4 wars in last 60 years and there had been minor disputes here and there but what has been the qualified forces will strength of 4.5 million been doing in the peace time ?

India as a country have a long road to travel to improve its infrastructure, to develop our cities and villages . Why cant the qualified people from the forces help the country in achieving its goals. There can be some rotation policy which allows say 10% of the trained force people at a time can be deployed in the developmental projects.

Currently when the country is facing huge shortage of well quantified and trained staff, our armed forces can make our country even more proud about them. The decision has to be taken by our think tank and I am sure the armed forces can be much more useful even in the peace time. 

How to fight uncertain World

The world and the market changes so fast nowadays that the uncertainty is something our generation needs to live with, its is more or less unavoidable. Whether its the skill requirement for any job, the technology or even the way of looking at things, it keeps changing. There is no point fighting this change, but the sensible idea should be how to minimize the risk of uncertainty for our self and our families.
For starters, few of the ways to counter such risks can be:

1.  Awareness : The first step of negotiating any risk is to be aware about it. If we as a person are not aware of the challenges and threats we are exposed to, it will be impossible to tackle the risk.

2. Corpus: Ours is the credit card generation, we buy today and earn tomorrow assuming that the tomorrow is as bright as today. I think we should always have a  corpus of savings which is liquid in nature and should be able to sustain us for a period of 6 months to 1 year.

3. Investing in the Intellectual Capital: To walk ahead of changing times, one need to keep investing in the skills and try and improve ones intellectual capital in the process.


4. Making right choices: The choices we make should be futuristic in nature and should also be something one can enjoy.

Same Strategy: Divide and Rule

After Jantar Mantar victory, Looking at the news which are making the headlines regarding the Anna Hazare's revolution ... people at influential position are trying to link Chief Minister Narendra Modi with Anna . Anna did praised the minister for the development work. Any linkages with Narendra Modi will only divide the masses as the minister has a image of carrying a very fundamentalist ideology.

Anna being a Gandhiwadi and true patriot has nothing to do with all these controversies. It looks to be the clear work of the people with vested interests who doesn't want the masses to support Anna's mission.

Just looking at the history, it all looks so consistent.. what a funny analogy.. Britishers tried the same divide and rule policy to dilute the Mahatma's fight for freedom now the few people are trying the same tricks to dilute Anna's mission for a corruption free country.

I hope Anna succeed like Mahatma for India and for Indians.

The Rich India : Statistical Review

 I really wanted to know the statistics regarding poverty in India after writing the post Defining Poverty. The numbers were different on various websites. Than by collecting bits and pieces I tried to make the whole picture about the rich India somewhat clear. The data is consistent with World Bank estimates about the poverty in India. I have just defined poverty level as less than 2$/day which I believe is bare minimum to lead a life.

Here the pie chart clearly shows that nearly 80% of India is still poor earning less than 2$/day, The middle class is rising and constitutes nearly 19.61% of Indians and rich are less than 0.4% of the total population. I have defined middle class as people earning more than 2$/day.

To have a better view of the enormity of the situation, have a look at the assorted data in the below picture.

We have nearly 50 billionaires which keeps hitting the media headlines. We can boast of 170,000 dollar millionaires in India but the number is less than the number of dollar millionaires in Switzerland which has less than 1% of the population of India.

The news and views on India shining and becoming developed nation keep hitting the news channels. The rich and middle class Indians feels good to hear these views but we can not deny the real situation.


The numbers are improving, there are more people every day getting out of 2$/day benchmark and becoming the part of middle class but there is still a long way to go.

Defining Poverty

Poverty runs deep in India, to the extend that we start ignoring it.. the reason is very simple, we get use to it. From our childhood days we see so many destitute, beggars that we think that is the part of our life and ets just ignore it. This blog is not on it, it is about the definition of poverty ? Who do you call a poor ?

The country is full of brilliant souls and Politicians who don't really want India to show its poor face to the world. They try and show that the poverty in the country is coming down as it portrays the good image of  the country. They try and eliminate poverty by these three ways:

1. Development: Improve the image of the country by doing developmental work which have direct or indirect effect on alleviating poverty from the country. Lot of it is being done nowadays, some by the government and more by NGO's, external aids etc.

2. Eliminate the Poor: If you cant eliminate the poverty, can reduce the number by eliminating the poor population. Very difficult and barbaric option. The good thing is that no one can do it. Its just the natural calamities and disease in India which does it. The infant and maternal mortality amongst poor in the country is very high. So no action to reduce poverty in one way is like making the poor die by disease and illness.

3. Redefine Poverty: The easiest way out to show reduction in poverty is by changing the definition of poor. If you simply change the poverty line from 1.25$/day ( World Bank PPP number ) to Indian number of1 $/day, a lot of Indians crosses the BPL line overnight.


Some economist says that people earning less than 2$/ day should be classified as poor, others argue that less than a $ per day are poor. So their is no uniform definition of poverty in India.

The planning commission of India accepts that 37% of the Indian population is living below the poverty line as per the Tendulkar ( not Sachin ) committee report.  Arjun Sengupta report says that 77% of the people in India are living with less tha 0.5 $/day.

Whatever may be the exact proportion of poor in the country but even 37% number is quite a high number.

How Google pays just 2.4% corporate Tax

It was a surprising revelation, 30 Billion $ US company, Google pays just 2.4% of the profits as taxes when corporate tax in USA is 35% .. They have saved more than 3billion dollars in last few years .. how ?
 
They adapt a popular strategy known as the Double Irish. Google has incorporated two subsidiaries in Ireland. One is a holding company in Bermuda, the other is located in Ireland.

In Ireland, intellectual property royalties has lower income tax rates of 12.5%. Google’s Irish company in Ireland pays those royalties to its Irish company in tax-haven Bermuda and again  funneling them through the tax-advantaged Netherlands on the way and end up paying just 2.4% in taxes. How this is some financial engineering.

Google should now start offering tax consulting too apart from internet services.

Two Indians in Top 10 richest College Dropouts !

Yes, two Indians has made it to the top 10 richest dropouts of the world .. I was surprised when I read the list, more so as I never knew that both Mukesh Ambani and Ajim Premji are college dropouts.

One can say that they had the legacy of their fathers behind them but I will still say that they actually made it big. Particularly Mr Premji venturing into software from commodity business was amazing.

Incidentally both  of them were studying in Stanford University before they left it for the good. Other college dropout that made up to the list from Stanford University is Steve Ballmer, the CEO of Microsoft.

Harvard Grads, Bill Gates and Mark Zukerberg of facebook fame also adored the list of richest dropouts.

Now we know where to go if we want to be rich and also don't want to study for too long :-)

Speak like a Captain

 Being a captain of any team, one has be responsible and intelligent in all the external communications. The curious case of Shahid Afridi bashing Indian people and media is still alive in our memories and has left a bad taste in mouth. Since the wordings were so strong the media actually made him take his words back.

Now the hard hitting batsman Mr. Sehwag has also done something which I will not associate well for a captain of the team Delhi Daredevils. He said in a press briefing, " I have played under Dhoni's captaincy and I know what all tactics he can deploy as a captain and will make it ineffective against Delhi Daredevils Team" . Now there are somethings which you might be thinking of but speaking it out as a captain does not look really good for a captain of the team. Yes, it might not be as bad as what Afridi did but non the less he could have been more discrete. The media might not have caught the comment made by him but it does looks immature for some one like Sehwag.

The only thing which is interesting in these recent episodes is the similarity between Sehwag and Afridi's way of playing cricket.

Anna shows the Power of Democracy

Mr. Anna Hazare is actually showcasing the power of democracy in this modern world. Old Gadhian tools of Ahimsa and Satyagraha are working wonders again in this world of tears and blood sheds. I am really fascinated to see the kind of support his movement has got from the people of the country.

The youth of country has also sent a very strong message to the government that the days of corruption are limited now and they should better improve the governance otherwise this country come to the streets and fight it out. Ihe important part of this message is that the youth of the country is intelligent and responsive and will adopt the route of peaceful agitation. Few years back it was difficult to foresee this new face of Indian Youth, I believe the Sanjay Dutt movies on Gandhi giri should be admired for making this internet and i-pod generation believe in Gandhian philosophy.

Other exciting thing happening is the rapid adoption of technology in the country. I am very hopeful that the changes brought about by use of Information technology and social movements will work in parallel and will make the administrators of the country more transparent and responsive.

The initiative of UID could prove to be a another milestone which will change the way system works and will drastically reduce the leakages.

Looking at the evolution of the western world, they all suffered from corruption during high growth phase but the systems became much cleaner and government agencies became far more responsive as they got the dose of development.  India is also witnessing the same changes and hopefully in our life times we might see a new India with with far less corruption and red tap-ism. 

What exactly is CBI doing ?

If we look at the past, we all know how honest had all our politicians and bureaucrats been. The Central Bureo of Investigation was primarily created with following divisions:

• Anti Corruption Division: Cases of corruption and fraud committed by public servants of all Central Govt. Departments, Central Public Sector Undertakings and Central Financial Institutions.

• Economic Crimes Division: Deals with cases including bank frauds, financial frauds, Import Export & Foreign Exchange violations, large-scale smuggling of narcotics, antiques, cultural property and smuggling of other contraband items etc.

• Special Crimes Division: Deals with cases such as cases of terrorism, bomb blasts, sensational homicides, kidnapping for ransom and crimes committed by the mafia/the underworld.                      (Source:  Wikipedia)

Now if we analyze their work particularly in anti corruption,  I cant remember any of the politician or a top notch bureaucrat being nabbed by CBI. The Raja's 2G scam was discovered by central Vigilence Unit so was the case of Hasan Ali where Supreme Court has to intervene when it found CBI doing nothing. This is the story with almost all the prominent cases.

Even now that the CBI is investigating  the 2 G scam, the charge sheet filed by CBI is kind of soft towards Raja. I really dont understand what exactly are they doing ? Is there some genuine conflict of interest where all the posting and promotions of CBI are being done by the influential politicians and bureaucrats and they just cant do anything about them ?

Team India: Making History

It was amazing to see India lift the Cricket World Cup yet again after 28 years. The team never looked perturbed by the initial blows in the finals, not even when Sachin got out. This team under Dhoni has graduated to a level where they can think about winning without Sachin.

I still remember the matches of world cup from 1992 to 2011, the truth is the team never looked so formidable before. Yes, the team had a good chance in 1996 but Srilankans with the assistance from unprepared pitch of  Eden Gardens gave us a disappointing loss. The uncompleted match played at Eden  made a lot of Indians to cry and we still get emotional about that game. The itch lasted really long  but finally Dhoni's XI gave  Lankans  reply after 15 years. What a fabulous way of winning.

The God of Cricket got the due respect from the team and it was very nice to hear the team dedicating the cup to him. Sachin actually got what was long due to him. I strongly believe Sachin should play another world cup as he is still the best batsman in India and the world and his fitness levels are beyond doubt.

The whole thing is still to seep in, Winning the world cup Feels great !

Stock Market Puzzle

Nobody Knows when the markets moves up or down !

The market was going smoothly in 2010 and than it declined nearly 20% all of a sudden. What were the reasons for it ? People can only find out the reasons after the market actually falls. People gave lot of reasons

• Egypt Crisis
• Inflationary Conditions
• High Interest Rate to reduce the Profitability of India Inc
• Corporate Governance issues emerging in Indian Companies
• Libya Crisis
•  Manmohan Singh Government and scams
• Crude Oil to hit the growth of India 

Few of the economist had even written off India. Likes of Goldman Sachs said that developed countries will outperform the emerging economies .. hmm too many views all of a sudden..

Now the market has recovered almost 1000 points in a short run. The conditions are actually quite similar to earlier conditions or much worst that what they were. The crisis in Japan can also affect the growth of the world, than you have RBI increasing the policy rates yet again and none of the earlier conditions have actually changed.

The truth is that no one can predict the direction of market in short run and whenever market takes sharp turn than most of the market players are caught unaware of it and it is not logical.

The funny side of the story is that whenever there is a strong rumor that the market it is going to decline, usually there is no actual decline in stocks and when the market declines, nobody knows it.

10 reasons why people love regular Bollywood movies ..

Its hard to imagine people loving bollywood movies.. a big statement right .. I am talking about the regular bollywood movie where you can predict the movie right from the beginning, there are cheezy and crapy songs after every 15 minutes, characters which might look 50 year old but can still be shown as teenagers, larger than life lead characters and same old  f***** story. Wow, this is the real bollywood movie .. Hard to imagine why people just fall for it over and over again.. 

I still remember that once upon a time I went to watch this movie " KISNA" and had taken a vow that will think twice before getting into a theater. Yes some of the movies are real awesome but  Goodness me watching KISNA was a real pain sitting in that theater, you can't even sleep, it was so irritating !

So I was trying to think why people might like bollywod movies ..and at times watch the same movie over and over again ..  The reasons can be plenty but the one I can think of are: -

1.  Hero Worship : hmm , rather a costly way .. cant resist the mass appeal hmm ..

2. Songs : Wanna hear to good songs  , Get yourself a I-Pod ..

3. Heroines : Hmm actresses ,  cant find a solution , go buddy watch it again as if she is gonna jump out of the screen..

4. Time Pass : Have you tried the new PS 3 with motion sensors..

5. Accompanying your GF/BF/WIFE/Relatives : Hmm , I can very well understand what you are going through ..

6. Insomniac :  If typical bollywood movie is better than a sleeping pill , wow .. its a new market for theaters.

7. Language Troubles : Can't understand the accent, try the subtitles. You gonna love it !

8. Place for Romance: There are very few corner seats , try the box seats, they are kinds cool !

9. Bird Watching : Never knew you can watch birds in dark !

10. Bollywood movies are real awesome : No comments .

Investing in Mid Caps .

Small and mid caps companies looks very attractive at times on stock indices. You might find them rightly priced, far cheaper than the regular blue chips but investing in them is a tough question.

The biggest problem in these companies is lack of transparency. Inspite of strict discloser norms enforced by SEBI, there are companies which frequently cook up their numbers.


The corporate governance issues are creating lot of volatility in the mid caps stocks off late.The mid caps actually corrected by nearly 25% in last one month as some of the companies were found to be either involved in unethical business practices or their owners were involved in some types of scams which puts a question mark on the whole company.  

Mid caps also have problem of cash and seldom a recession can eat of all their cash reserves and a company might never be able to become profitable even after the return of good times . In case of blue chips the resilience to survive a few quarter of negative growth is much more.

I believe the best way to pick a good mid cap stock is :

1.      
      How to pick the real Infosys of the future amongst hundreds of scripts? The real multi-baggers will be found in mid or small caps only . 

            1. Analyze the leverage of the company: A highly leverage medium sized company is more likely to fall in bad times.

2.      
      2.Disclosures and Transparency

3.      3.Quality of management

4.      4.Business Model

5.      5.Barriers to Entry in the business

6.      6.Profit margins 

             

        All said and done , its a tricky exercise . If one is not very sure of investing in equities than investing in mid caps is definitely not a option .